Community: Population
Prince Edward County, Ontario, Canada.
Vital Signs Data
Updated March 25, 2024
- A migration of 6,240 people to PEC during this period, attributed partly to the pandemic and remote work, impacting housing supply and prices. This is compared to 3,515 in the previous census period.
- An overall population increase of 969 individuals, compared to a previous decrease of 523.
- A loss of 5,271 residents due to relocation and deaths, with a slightly higher death rate observed.
- Stable local birth rate, but a rise in the population of 0-9 year olds due to new families moving in, causing strain on primary classrooms and child care waitlists.
- Reasons for relocation vary, with factors like housing affordability, gentrification, and real estate trends playing roles.
- Additionally, there’s been a rise in seasonal homeowners, reaching 8,644 in 2021.
| Population | PEC 2006 | PEC 2011 | PEC 2016 | PEC 2021 | Ontario 2021 | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Permanent population total | 25,496 | 25,258 | 24,735 | 25,704 | 14,223,942 | Stats Can |
| Population change | 595 (2.4%) | -238 (-0.9%) | -523 (-2.1%) | 969 (3.9%) | 5.8% | Stats Can |
| In-migration | 4,525 | -- | 3,515 | 6,240 | -- | Stats Can |
| Median age (years) | 47.7 | 51.6 | 54.5 | 56.8 | 41.6 | Stats Can |
| Ages 0-14 | 14.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 11.6% (2,980) | 15.8% | Stats Can |
| Ages 15-64 | 63.8% | 62.6% | 58.6% | 54.9% (14,115) | 65.6% | Stats Can |
| Ages 65+ | 21.8% | 25.2% | 29.8% | 33.5% ( 8,605) | 18.5% | Stats Can |
| Town of Picton | -- | -- | 4,395 | 4,508 | -- | Stats Can |
| Village of Wellington | -- | -- | 1,353 | 1,526 | -- | Stats Can |
| Seasonal homeowner population | -- | 5,966 | 7,475 | 8,644 | -- | MPAC |
| Population density per sq/km | 24.3 | 24.0 | 23.5 | 24.4 | -- | Stats Can |
Population estimate in 2022: 26,816
(Statistics Canada, Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2022)
Population growth
In 2021, Prince Edward County’s population of 25,704 reflected an increase of 3.9% between 2016 and 2021. This is a positive trend after a decade of population decline. This compares to Ontario’s population increase of 5.8% during this timeframe. Within PEC, the Village of Wellington experienced a 12.8% growth rate, while the Town of Picton’s population grew by 2.6%.
Population trends and projections indicate an accelerated growth rate over the next 20 years. Based on Ministry of Finance population projections, the permanent population is expected to reach 29,970 by 2041.
Residential housing units are also expected to increase in line with the population growth. The 2021 tally of 11,651 units will grow to 13,474 in early 2033 and 14,942 in early 2043. Most of this growth will be in Picton and Wellington, based on Council-approved applications for projects that are underway. Learn more about where this growth is expected.
Anticipating this growth, the municipality is working to ensure that development infrastructure like water and sanitary pipes keeps pace to meet the needs of the thriving community. (County planning for growth and development)
Increase in youth population
PEC’s birth rate was almost flat in the sample years 2016 and 2020. Despite this, the youth population increased (from 2,860 to 2,980) for the first time in 15 years.
| Year | Total births | Ages <=19 | 20-24 | 25-29 | 30-34 | 35+ | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 188 | 8 | 37 | 57 | 62 | 24 | ||
| 2020 | 190 | 4 | 23 | 58 | 58 | 47 |
Many families moved to PEC during the pandemic, boosting the youth population. The increase in incoming youth is creating an overflow in primary classrooms and a long waiting list for child care (The HUB Child & Family Centre). However, Ontario only has licensed child care space for 20% of all children. (Child Care Ontario)
Seasonal population
PEC’s population drastically increases in the summer due to tourism. Prince Edward County was identified in Travel & Leisure Magazine’s list of top 50 places to visit in the world.
In 2022, there were 1.13 million tourist visits to PEC. This is 4% below 2019 numbers; 2019 is recognized in the tourism sector as a crucial benchmark year, as it precedes the pandemic fluctuations. The County is seeing fewer visitors, but those that come enjoy longer stays, and spend more money. Since 2019, repeat visits, those by the same tourist, have increased. On average, each visitor to PEC in 2022 “came back” 10 times. In 2019, the return rate was half that. (VisitPEC)
The population of seasonal residents (those who own seasonal properties) has been increasing faster than the permanent population. In 2022, the estimated number of seasonal residents (ages 18+) is 8,644.
That’s 25% of the total permanent and seasonal adult population (ages 18+). (MPAC)
Planning services for fluctuating populations is challenging. Seasonal populations vary by time of year, average age, activities, participation in the local community, and healthcare needs. One of the greatest impacts of seasonal populations is on emergency services and related infrastructure.
Population by age
Median age
In 2021 the median age* of PEC’s population was 56.8 years old, up 2.7 years from 2016 (54.5). In 2021, this is 15.2 years higher than the provincial average (41.6). (Prince Edward County 2021 Census Profile)
*Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equally sized groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older.
Prince Edward is projected to have less than 50 per cent of its population aged 15–64 by 2046. (Govt of Ontario Population Projections)
Population shifts by age
Population density
Prince Edward County is larger in km² than the city of Toronto, with a small population spread over 1050 km². PEC’s population density is low at 24.4 people per sq/km (1,050 sq km) compared to Toronto at 4,428 people per sq/km. (Prince Edward County 2021 Census Profile)
