Housing: Owning

Prince Edward County, Ontario, Canada.

Updated November 5, 2022

Page Contents:

House prices |
Factors |
Sources

There is a growing, acute shortage of housing in Eastern Ontario, particularly in rural regions. Housing purchases by in-migration from large urban centres, second-home buyers, investors and retirees have pushed PEC house prices higher and decreased the supply of affordable housing.

House prices

While home prices have generally reliably risen for nearly 20 years, there has been a sudden spike in rural home prices during the Covid-19 pandemic. Eastern Ontario regions averaged 32.4% in median home price increases from 2020-2021. While Toronto averaged ~18%, Northumberland County was 44%, City of Kawartha Lakes was 60%, and Prince Edward County averaged 79%. (CREA)

PEC median after-tax household income increased by only 36% from 2010 to 2020, while median house sales prices increased by 135% in the same timeframe.

The PEC median house price is 25% higher than in neighbouring regions.

Factors that are affecting housing prices and inventory

Between 2016-17, up to half of the home sales in the County were attributed to new short-term accommodations (STAs). The relative importance of STAs in deteriorating housing affordability has declined significantly since 2019, as reported by Prof. David Wachsmuth, a Canada Research Chair in Urban Governance Associate at the School of Urban Planning at McGill University.

Second-home sales are likely responsible for most of the increase in house prices and rents since the start of the pandemic. Prince Edward County’s housing market has felt the impact of increased homeowner demand with people from areas surrounding Toronto purchasing local properties where they can work remotely and live more affordably. Roughly 75,000 people left Toronto and Montreal – Canada’s two biggest cities and main COVID-19 hot spots – for other parts of their respective provinces of Ontario and Quebec in the year up to July 2020, the largest such migration since at least 2001. (Reuters.com Red-hot and rural: Canadian towns grapple with big-city-like real estate boom, May 13, 2021)

For Prince Edward County, the in-migration from large urban areas helped drive house prices up 78.5% (April 2020 to April 2021), putting ownership out of reach for many local residents, especially first-time home buyers. This is creating a large divide between those that owned a house 5-10 years ago and those that didn’t. A good job isn’t enough anymore to promise home ownership.

Low borrowing costs intended to stimulate the locked-down economy, also increased property buyers’ budgets. As many invested in real estate, the most vulnerable found themselves struggling to make rent and mortgage payments.

Although the market will stabilize with interest rates there is no expectation that the current value of homes will drop. In some municipalities the value will continue to increase due to predicted migration from larger centres. (KPMG 2022)

Sources

Toggle here for source list

Prince Edward County, Belleville and Quinte West median house prices were provided by Lisa Comerford, Quinte & District Association of REALTORS®.

The median after-tax income of households is based on Prince Edward County 2006, 2016 and 2021 censuses and 2011 National Household Survey.

Statistics Canada. 2022. (table). Census Profile. 2021 Census of Population. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2021001. Ottawa. Released April 27, 2022.

Statistics Canada. 2017. Prince Edward County, CY [Census subdivision], Ontario and Ontario [Province] (table). Census Profile. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released November 29, 2017.

Statistics Canada. 2017. Prince Edward County, CY [Census subdivision], Ontario and Ontario [Province] (table). Census Profile. 2016 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-316-X2016001. Ottawa. Released November 29, 2017.

Statistics Canada. 2007. Prince Edward, Ontario (Code3513) (table). 2006 Community Profiles. 2006 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 92-591-XWE. Ottawa. Released March 13, 2007.

Statistics Canada. 2012. Focus on Geography Series, 2011 Census. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 98-310-XWE2011004. Ottawa, Ontario. Analytical products, 2011 Census. Last updated October 24, 2012.