Community - Population

After a decade of population decline from 2006 to 2016, PEC is now experiencing growth. With the local birth rate remaining stable, this increase is driven by higher in-migration.

A rise in the population of 0-9 year olds due to new families moving in is causing capacity strains on primary classrooms and child care waitlists.

The growth rate of 3.9% from 2016 to 2021 compares to Ontario’s population increase of 5.8% and the national average of 5.2% during this timeframe. Within PEC, the Village of Wellington experienced a 12.8% growth rate, while the Town of Picton’s population grew by 2.6%.

An in-migration of 6,240 people to PEC from 2016 to 2021, attributed partly to the pandemic and remote work, impacted housing supply and prices. This is compared to 3,515 in the previous census period.
In the same timeframe, 3,562 residents left compared to 2,534 in the previous census period. Reasons for relocation vary, with factors such as housing affordability, gentrification, and real estate trends playing roles.

Population by Age

Population by age

Prince Edward County is experiencing an aging population and a declining workforce-aged demographic.

In 2021 the median age* of PEC’s population was 56.8 years old, up 2.7 years from 2016 (54.5). In 2021, this is 15.2 years higher than the provincial average (41.6). PEC has the second highest percentage of seniors in Ontario (33.5%) after Haliburton (35%). (Rural Ontario Institute, Seniors Fact Sheet)

*Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equally sized groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older.

Population shifts by age

Youth Population (0 to 14 years): As of 2021, the number of children aged 0 to 14 in Prince Edward County rose slightly for the first time in 15 years, from 2,860 to 2,980, despite a stable local birth rate (see below). This growth is primarily due to new families relocating to the area during the pandemic, putting pressure on the capacity of childcare services and primary school classrooms. While youth make up 11.6 percent of the local population, this is still below the provincial average of 15.8 percent.

Ages 15 to 64: In 2021, PEC's working age population ages 15 to 64 comprise 54.9 percent of the population, compared to the provincial average of 65.6 percent. This age range is declining (from 58.6 percent in 2016). PEC is projected to have less than 50 per cent of its population aged 15–64 by 2046.

Younger generations, such as millennials and Generation Z, are more educated and diverse than previous generations. These generations, who are still young, are more exposed to ethnocultural, religious and gender diversity and have grown up in an interconnected technological world that has a significant impact on their values and lifestyles. These generations now make up a considerable share of the working-age population, leading to changes in the labour market. (A generational portrait of Canada’s aging population from the 2021 Census, Statistics Canada)

Senior Population (65+): With a decidedly older population, a third of our residents (33.5%) are over 65 years of age compared to the provincial rate of 18.5 percent. With a median age 15.2 years older than the province, the County has one of the oldest populations in Ontario. This is the fastest-growing age group with an increase of 16.6 percent between 2016 and 2021. Ontario's population is also aging, with an 17.1 percent increase for the population 65 and older.

After 2031, the growth in the number of seniors (age 65+) will slow and is projected to peak in 2036. (Govt of Ontario)

In PEC, the inflow of highly experienced and skilled early retirees contributes to the large active volunteer base.

The fact that baby boomers are reaching more advanced ages is gradually putting more pressure on the health and home care system, as well as on pension plans, although many people in this generation are currently choosing to stay in the workforce longer. As well, in the midst of high job vacancies and historically low unemployment, Canada faces record retirements from an aging labour force. (A generational portrait of Canada’s aging population from the 2021 Census, Statistics Canada)

Further considerations for senior support include vulnerability stemming from the increased likelihood of ill health, low income, impaired mobility, social supports, more susceptibility to victimization and financial fraud, and social and geographical isolation in rural areas. (Rural Ontario Institute), (Prince Edward County Police Services Board. Community Safety and Well-being Plan)

Birth rates

Year	Total births	Ages <=19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35+
2016	188	8	37	57	62	24
2020	190	4	23	58	58	47

(above) Number of infants born among PEC residents by calendar year and pregnant person age at birth.
Data were extracted from the BORN Information System (BIS) on 1 June, 2022.

Diversity

Population Diversity

Visible Minorities

In 2021 in Prince Edward, 3.1 percent of the population was classified as a visible minority, an increase of 0.9 percent since 2016. However, this is still far below the provincial rate of 34.3%. As more people choose to call PEC home, our BIPOC (Black, Indigenous, People of Colour) community is also growing. As the BIPOC community grows, so do reports of racist incidents happening across PEC. See the 2022 survey results.

All Welcome Here Rural BIPOC Association is focused on connecting residents to each other, to anti-racist education, and to pathways to local action. See details at allwelcomehere.ca

Identifying as Indigenous

In 2021, 3.2 percent of Prince Edward residents identified as Indigenous, compared to the province at 2.9 percent. That’s up 6.7 percent since 2016. Of those, 2.1 percent reported a First Nations identity and 0.8 percent reported a Métis identity. An additional 0.2 percent reported other Indigenous identities.

Tyendinaga Mohawk Territory is our neighbouring community.

Immigrants

In 2021, 10 percent of the population was foreign-born, 20 percentage points lower than the provincial average (30%). The percent of the population that is foreign-born is down 0.9 percentage points from 2016 (10.9%).

New to the community?

The Newcomers Group provides an opportunity to meet other people who are new to the area as well as share all the great restaurants, shops and groups you’ve learned about. You can also bring any questions you might have. Guest speakers will be invited to share information about their organizations. Reserve your space at peclibrary.org.

Gender Diverse

Over time, the acceptance and understanding of gender and sexual diversity has evolved. Further, there has been social and legislative recognition of transgender, non-binary and LGBTQ2+ people in general. Younger generations may be more comfortable reporting their gender identity than older generations. (The Daily, Statistics Canada 2022-04-27)

Locally, support and allyship locally is shown through:

County Pride events and Rainbow registered businesses
GSA gender & sexuality alliance at Prince Edward Collegiate.
Discover YOUth! is an all-inclusive weekly drop-in for 2SLGBTQ+ youth and allies. The program features guest speakers, field trips, art projects and of course – snacks! For youth ages 12+. Have Questions? Visit www.peclibrary.org/lgbtq. Transportation can be arranged for youth in need.
More can be done, for example youth have asked for consistent access to sexual health education that is inclusive and relevant, and for mental health support from qualified professionals with lived experience.

Non-permanent Population

Tourism

PEC’s population drastically increases in the summer due to tourism. Prince Edward County was identified in Travel & Leisure Magazine’s list of top 50 places to visit in the world.

In 2022, there were 1.13 million tourist visits to PEC. This is 4% below 2019 numbers; 2019 is recognized in the tourism sector as a crucial benchmark year, as it precedes the pandemic fluctuations. The County is seeing fewer visitors, but those that come enjoy longer stays, and spend more money. Since 2019, repeat visits, those by the same tourist, have increased. On average, each visitor to PEC in 2022 “came back” 10 times. In 2019, the return rate was half that. (VisitPEC)

Seasonal Residents

The population of seasonal residents (those who own seasonal properties) has been increasing faster than the permanent population. In 2022, the estimated number of seasonal residents (ages 18+) is 8,644.

That’s 25% of the total permanent and seasonal adult population (ages 18+). (MPAC)

Planning services for fluctuating populations is challenging. Seasonal populations vary by time of year, average age, activities, participation in the local community, and healthcare needs. One of the greatest impacts of seasonal populations is on emergency services and related infrastructure.

Density

Population density

Prince Edward County is larger in km² than the city of Toronto, with a small population spread over 1050 km². PEC’s population density is low at 24.4 people per sq/km (1,050 sq km) compared to Toronto at 4,428 people per sq/km.

At least 77 percent of the population lives rurally. Amenities and services are concentrated in two main towns. Picton (population 4,508) and Wellington (population 1,526) are the County’s largest centres. (Statistics Canada: Population and Dwelling Counts 2021)

Summary Table

Notes:
*2023 is an intercensal year and contains Statistics Canada population estimates
2011 - no migration data was collected in the National Household Survey

Sources

Born Ontario birth rates (custom request)

MPAC seasonal resident data (custom request)

Ontario Ministry of Finance Annual population projections from 2023 to 2051

Ontario Population Projections, 2023-2051

Statistics Canada: